Nifty 50 Seasonality Analysis

January & February:
- Generally weak months with negative or mixed returns in most years.
- Biggest losses: 2008 (-16.3%), 2011 (-10.2%), 2016 (-4.8%).
- Recent trends: 2023 (-2.4%), 2024 (-1.0%), 2025 (-0.6%).
March & April:
- Historically strong months with green dominance.
- Big gains: 2009 (+9.3%), 2016 (+10.8%), 2020 (-23.2%, pandemic shock but strong April recovery of +14.7%).
- Recent trends: 2024 (+1.2% March, +1.6% April), 2023 (+0.3% April).
May to July:
- May & June are volatile, but July often shows gains.
- Strongest July performances: 2020 (+7.5%), 2009 (+15.0%), 2003 (+12.6%).
- Weak July: 2008 (-17.0%).
August to October:
- August is mixed: Some years show strong rebounds (e.g., 2022 +8.7%), while others are weak.
- September historically weak (-6.6% in 2015, -10.1% in 2008).
- October often shows recovery after September declines (e.g., 2013 +9.8%, 2010 +11.6%).
November & December:
- November is often a rebound month (e.g., 2023 +5.5%, 2020 +11.4%, 2007 +17.5%).
- December is mostly positive, with some years showing strong rallies (e.g., 2023 +7.9%, 2003 +16.4%).

2022:
- Weak start (-3.1% Feb, -3.7% Sep).
- Strong bounce back in August (+8.7%) and November (+5.4%).
2023:
- January & February were negative (-2.4% and -2.0%).
- Strong May (+4.1%), July (+3.5%), and November (+5.5%).
2024:
- Weak February (-3.0%) but positive March & April.
- October was negative (-6.2%).
- Strong November (+5.5%).
2025 (So far):
- January (-0.6%) & February (-3.0%) show a weak start.

Best Months to Buy:
- Historically, September and February are weak, making them good accumulation points.
- March, April, July, and November tend to be strong, offering good exit opportunities.
Worst Months for Holding Positions:
- Historically, September and October have been risky for holding long positions.
- If market weakness persists in early 2025, mid-year recovery could be expected (similar to past trends).